This one looks like its going to hit us. Current tracking has Typhoon Ruby reaching "Super Typhoon" status just about the time it will make landfall in East Samar in essentially the same location where Yolanda hit last year. There is a 25% chance that the path of the eye will shift north, toward Lagonoy. That would be quite unfortunate! While thankfully, not as strong as Yolanda, it is still expected to be the strongest storm of the year.
A "Super" typhoon is recognized as such by sustained wind velocity of 150mph. Ummm... thats a strong wind indeed! And then there is the issue of storm surge. Storm surge is a phenomena that occurs during a hurricane or typhoon. Essentially the water ion the ocean gets 'pushed' forward by the strength of the wind. Not a problem in itself, until the waves reach landfall. Imagine holding a cup of water that is full to the brim. Now, blow hard over the top of the cup... what happens? That is storm surge! Storm surge is not the same as flooding because with a storm surge, the event happens quickly, and the damage is violent and extensive...much like a tsunami. Storm surge from Ruby is expected to exceed 4 meters in coastal locations.. thats a wall of water about 13 feet high. I have seen so many villages since i got here that are built OVER the water... out of bamboo and other natural materials.. These folks had better get out of the way! Hopefully, the word will get out to them in time. If history is any indicator, they will lose everything but their lives but theywill return to the same location to rebuild again.. .probably sometime next week. Amazing!
During my last PC service in Antigua, both Jean and I witnessed the damage wrought by hurricane Hugo, a Cat 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135mph. That was a long, scary night! 90% of the roofs on the neighboring island of Montserrat were significantly damaged or destroyed. PC admin is obviously taking this threat very seriously. All volunteers in the country have been ordered to prepare a "go kit" in case a quick evacuation is called. The staging site for my area is a pension in Naga City, should an evacuation be ordered.
The administrator has called an emergency meeting of the municipal disaster planning council within the hour and I have been invited to speak. It will be interested to see how that goes!
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